- The crypto bull run has taken a hiatus, but US inflation’s anticipated rise could jumpstart the rally.
- Bitcoin is pivotal at $50,000 while facing intense resistance at the 100 SMA on the 4-hour chart.
- Ethereum is likely to fall to $1,400, especially if the 50 SMA fails to hold in the near term.
- Ripple dances in a no-trade range as consolidation looms.
The crypto bull run has taken a breather after the gruesome drop in value at the beginning of this week. Bitcoin led the freefall, dropping from $58,000 to $45,000. Generally, all cryptocurrencies retraced and are now holding above key support levels to prepare for another upswing to new yearly highs.
Amid the drop, investors are expecting that US inflation will continue to increase. The expectation has hit 2.38%, the highest level in roughly eight years. On the other hand, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, is confident that inflation will remain below the “two per cent longer-run objective.”
The surge in US inflation expectations continues unabated, now at its highest level in over 8 years (2.38%)…
Federal Reserve chairman Powell’s testimony today: “inflation remains below our 2 percent longer-run objective.” pic.twitter.com/akzQpP2ZSu
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) February 24, 2021
Bitcoin pivotal at $50,000
The flagship cryptocurrency has not made a definitive move since the recovery from $45,000. Its upside has been capped under the 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. On the other hand, the tug of war between the bears and bulls has left Bitcoin in lock-step, trading around $50,000.
A break above $52,500 (the 100 SMA) must come into the picture to open the door for gains to higher levels. The least resistance path is upwards, as revealed by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Therefore, buyers only need to increase their confidence in the recovery and focus on $60,000.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart
On the downside, support at the 50 SMA is key to keeping the uptrend intact. Note that, if lost, Bitcoin may fall back to $45,000. However, buyer congestion is expected at $47,500 and may stop declines from extending downhill.
Ethereum bulls seem overwhelmed as declines linger
Ethereum is holding at ascending channel’s lower edge. A recent upswing followed the establishment of support at $1,400. However, Ether failed to break the seller congestion at $1,700.
The short-term technical picture is vividly bearish, as observed from the MACD indicator. Since the drop from all-time highs, the MACD has not recovered. The wide divergence formed by the MACD line (blue) under the signal line cements the bears’ strong position in the market.
If the support channel fails to hold, ETH will test the next anchor at the 50 SMA on the 4-hour chart. Depending on the drop’s magnitude, Ethereum may extend the losses to $1,400 and $1,200, respectively.
It is worth noting that holding within the ascending channel will see the recovery mission continue. On the other hand, bulls must focus on breaking the hurdle at $1,700 and $1,800 to remove Ether from the woods so that they can focus on $2,000.
Ripple stuck in a no-trade zone
XRP’s upside has been limited under $0.5 for a couple of days. Recovery from the dive to $0.35 had confirmed to investors that $0.65 was nigh. However, the seller congestion at $0.5 continues to give them sleepless nights.
On the downside, Ripple is immediately supported by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Additionally, the 200 SMA on the 4-hour chart is in line to prevent the token’s value from dropping further. The levelling MACD confirms the sideways trading. Thus, Ripple may remain in this no-trade zone longer.
XRP/USD 4-hour chart
Support at the 200 SMA is vital to the consolidation and the potential uptrend. However, if broken, XRP may spiral back to $0.35 and perhaps extend the bearish leg to $0.3 before a significant upswing occurs.